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By- Ayush Pratap Singh

Lok Sabha Elections 2024 are scheduled to be held in 6 phases namely – 19 April 26 April 7 May 13 May 20 May 25 May and 1 June on 543 seats. The results will be announced on 4 June 2024. As we all know that India which is one of the most culturally diverse country of the world along with the tag of being largest democracy has it’s own implications. Across the nation voting will occur for the selection of MP’s in the 18^th Lok Sabha. NDA (National Democratic Alliance) is pitted against the opposition INDIA (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance) with former led by right aligned Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) and later led by center-left aligned Indian National Congress (INC) .The legislative assembly elections in the states of Andhra Pradesh ,Odisha, Arunachal Pradesh and Sikkim will be held simultaneously with the general election, along with the by-elections for 25 constituencies in 12 legislative assemblies. Voter age is 18 years minimum. The third term of the PM Narendra Modi is on the stake and opposition is trying to gain back it’s old footprints. India is a country of the youths but still the problem of unemployment is a point of concern whose effects can be seen in the elections. Construction of the Ram Mandir and it’s impact on the voting along with the polarization of votes can be observed on field. The reports say that the election is silent in nature as there is no undercurrent against the government still the farmer’s protest and Rajput agitation and their impact will be interesting to watch. The BJP is again fighting the election on the topic of development integrated with nationalism on mass level but also setting the caste matrix with around 15 percent of forward votes combined with a large chunk of OBC’s and some votes from scheduled caste. The Congress on the other hand with it’s allies is putting a good fight in the Hindi heartland but it’s position is stronger in the southern states. The minorities that are around 20 percent in the country are said to vote unanimously Congress or any other party that defeats BJP. Nothing is totally perfect in the world so is our election system still we are the torch-bearers of democracy and the people of India are it’s strength. Lok Sabha Elections 2024 will be the quest to translate vision into reality and will be crucial for paving the way in the future accommodating the differences.

_{[ UTTAR PRADESH ]}

There is an old saying prevalent in the political corridors that if you want to conquer Delhi then the way passes through Lucknow and it’s true for the state with highest Loksabha seats. To understand easily let’s divide it in 4 regions of Western UP, Purvanchal , Awadh and Bundelkhand.
Religious segregation and communal politics dominate Western UP .Caste based politics is dominant in Purvanchal with Yogi’s influence in upper part and Modi’s influence in lower part. Awadh was main centre of dispute of ram mandir so a stronghold of BJP. Bundelkhand is backward region and basic amenities along with caste is the basis of politics there. BJP, SP, INC and BSP are the key parties here. Of the total population, Brahmin accounts for 10 percent, Yadav accounts for 10 percent , Rajputs around 8 percent ,minority around 20 percent and SCs and ST around 24 percent.INC relied on its Brahman, Muslim and Dalit votebank to win here that eroded over the years to BJP and other regional players.
SP is a party based on Muslim-Yadav combination that gained influence in the state after Mandal-Kamandal politics becoming stalwart of OBC’s that had influence in the whole state but now having it’s influence in Yadav belt of Etawah, Mainpuri, Auraiya and Kannauj along with Azamgarh, Ambedkarnagar Gazipur and Ballia. BSP has been the party of SC and ST’s that plays a important role in the state.
PM Modi is contesting from Varanasi of UP. BJP is eyeing to sweep the state with 20 percent forward votes ( Brahmin,Rajput,Vaishya etc) and non-yadav OBC’s like Kurmi ,Kushwaha , Rajbhar ,Maurya , Patel etc for which they have allied with OP Rajbhar’s SBSP , Apna Dal of Anupriya Patel and Nishad Party of Sanjay Nishad.Also they have managed to the non-jatav vote(Pasi Dhobi Khatik) of Mayawati’s BSP . SP on the other hand has it’s own votebank of Yadav-Muslim and are expecting to get votes from non-yadav OBCs who are key for success but PM Modi’s image draw them towards BJP. SP might get the seats of Azamgarh,Mainpuri,Etawah ,Kannauj ,Rampur and Sambhal. INC mainly relies on SP to tackle BJP as it has failed to retaliate the combinations. Elections will be held here in all 7 phases from west to east in timeline.

[ HARYANA ]

Elections in Haryana was mainly dominated by nepotism and cronyism and defection was common with statements like aaya ram and gya ram ( For Chotu ram of INC). Ahirwal, Bagar, Khadar and Mewat are the different regions in the state .5 dynasties mainly Lal trio(Bansi lal ,Bhajan lal and Devi lal) Hooda family and Rao Birender Singh clan had a big influence over the politics that has decreased after 2014 . Voting will take place in 6^th phase on 26^th of May . BJP , INC and AAP are the major parties contesting here. INC is contesting 9 seats whereas AAP is contesting 1 seat. State has a significant jat population and the politics mainly mainly rally around them with their own political parties like JJP and INLD .BJP have done non-jat politics in the state targetting 40 percent OBCs in ( 20% artisan OBC and 20% traditional OBCs like Gurjar Saini Yadav and Kushwaha) whereas INC had the votes of Jat, Muslim and Dalits but BJP have added Jats and some Dalits to get all the 10 seats of Haryana.

[ RAJASHTAN ]

Rajasthan reveals a extravagant political and geographical landscape, divided into six wonderful areas, every with its particular character. Mewar, encompassing districts like Udaipur, Rajsamand, Chittorgarh, Dungarpur, and Banswara, sticks out with a substantial tribal population and historic political dominance. Shekhawati consists of districts along with Churu, Jhunjhunu, and Sikar, contributing to the country’s political tapestry. Bikana contains Bikaner, Ganganagar, and Hanumangarh. Regions like Jaipur and Dausa fall under the Dhundhar vicinity. The Brij place consists of Bharatpur, Dholpur, and Karoli, and Marwar encompasses districts like Jodhpur, Pali, Sirohi, Jhalod, Barmer and Jaisalmer.The so-known as forwards (such as Jats, Rajputs, Brahmins, and trading communities) incorporate 20-22% of the electorate, the alternative Backward Castes – Jats, Yadavs, Gujjars, Sanghis, constitute 45-50%, the Scheduled Caste is sixteen to 17%, the Scheduled Tribes has 13% even as Muslims constitute 9% in Rajasthan. In view of specialists the BJP secures a tremendous 60% vote of forwards, at the same time as the Congress has most effective 20%. There is also equal division of OBC votes among BJP and INC.BJP over the years have groomed the Jat politicians in Rajasthan. Even inside the SC/ST class, the votes are evenly dispursed between the Congress and the BJP with some votes to parties like Bharatiya Tribal party.Some key seats to have a glance are Churu seat where sitting MP Rahul Kaswa was denied ticket so he joined INC and is contesting against BJP. Barmer seat have contest between Ravindra Bhati (IND), Kailash Choudhary [BJP] and Ummedram Beniwal of [INC].Nagaur is also hotseat with contest between Hanuman Beniwal and Jyoti Mirdha.The elections here will take place in the first two phases on 19^th and 26^th April.

[ HIMACHAL PRADESH AND UTTARAKHAND ]

The elections in these two states is mainly bipolar between BJP and Congress. Both the states have good amount of forward caste(Brahmin+ Rajput) around 50 percent that are traditionally the voters of BJP. Uttarakhand is divided into 2 regions -Garhwal plains dominated by Rajputs have 3 Lok Sabha seats and Kumaon hills dominated by Brahmans with 2 Loksabha seats. Dalit population(Doms,Lohars etc ) is also present with around 20 to 30 percent of total votes. Overall BJP has been dominant in these two states after 1991 especially. In Uttarakhand voting will take place in 1^st phase and in Himachal in the 7^th phase. The interesting seat to watch for will be the Mandi Lok Sabha of Himachal where the son of former CM is pitted against Bollywood actress Kangana Ranaut

[ PUNJAB ]

Key parties in the state of Punjab are:- Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) , INC ,AAP, BSP and BJP. SAD is mainly the party of Jatt sikhs that are around 20% in the population. OBCs account for 31% population and SCs for around 32 percent.60 percent population is Sikh and 40 percent is Hindu. There are 3 political divisions of Punjab -Majha Doab and Malwa. Congress back on the support of OBCs and SCs to win whereas the key opposition SAD backs it’s Jatt, Khatri and some OBCs vote. BSP have also it’s presence in Malwa as the home of it’s founder Kanshi Ram fall’s there. Recently AAP has also gained prominence and AAP and INC are contesting independently here. The election’s will be held here in the 7th phase on 1st June. The impact of farmer’s protest can be seen here on the elections.

[ JAMMU AND KASHMIR + LADAKH + CHANDIGARH ]

Jammu and Kashmir has always been a topic of discussion in the political sphere. It consists of 5 seats of J&K (2 for Jammu and 3 for Kashmir) and 1 seat of Ladakh. Overall the state has around 60 percent Muslims concentrated mainly in Kashmir valley and 40 percent Hindus concentrated mainly in Jammu region. BJP, INC, National Conference and PDP are key parties here. BJP has not fielded it’s candidate on 3 seats of Kashmir valley.It will be interesting to see the fight in Anantnag-Rajaouri seat where former CM and PDPs cheif Mehbooba Mufti is contesting the polls . Abrogation of article 370 and removal of statehood is a major issue of elections. The election’s will be held here on 1 seat till 5th phase.

In Chandigarh the issue of welfare society is playing a major role along with the one third population of the migrants that are key to victory in the Lok Sabha. BJP INC and SAD have fielded their candidates here.

[ DELHI ]

BJP, INC and AAP are the major parties in Delhi. BJP is contesting on 7 seats whereas under INDIA alliance AAP is contesting on 4 seats and INC on 3 seats. West Delhi, North-East Delhi, North-West Delhi ,East Delhi, Chandni Chowk, New Delhi and South Delhi are the seats and each seat has it’s own matrix. Urban issues are prime concern but still caste and religion card is prominent here. Election’s will be held here in the 6th phase on 25th of May. It is said that BJP always have some edge in urban regions

[ KARNATAKA ]

Apart from the Hindi heartland, the politics of Karnataka is interesting not because it’s only bastion of BJP in South but also due to caste and other factors. BJP , INC and JDS are the key parties here. Vokkaliga(10-12℅), Lingayat (10-12℅), Kunbis( 8℅) are the major caste groups here. Around 24 percent of SC-STs are there along with the 3 to 4 percent Banjara community. After the insult and death of Virendra Patil, the Lingayats shifted towards BJP and are their core voters. INC has mix bag vote with around 20 percent of Lingayats vote, 20 percent of Vokkaliga , whole Kunbi and most of the SC minority vote. JDS is a political party of the Vokkaliga’s with former PM HD Devgowda as it’s leader. INC has DK Shivkumar (Vokkaliga) ,Siddaramaih (Kunbi) and INC national chief Mallikarjun Kharge who also comes from Karnataka and is a prominent SC face there. The only stalwart BJP has is BS Yedurappa from Lingayat community and rising leaders like T. Surya and Prataap Simha. Region wise Old Mysuru region is bastion of JDS. BJP is strong in coastal Karnataka and INC in Central and Kalyana region. Local issues dominate in Kittur Karnataka. Elections will be held in 2nd and 3rd phase on 26th April and 7th of May.

[ TAMIL NADU ]

The land of Periyar Tamil Nadu has been political active which can be understood by the fact that no national political party has come to power in the assembly elections since 1967. INC lost it’s stronghold in the state after the death of K Kamraj and politics of the state was hijacked by the parties with Dravidian ideology since then INC have worked on the principle of giving state to regional party and centre to INC. DMK of M Karunanidhi and AIADMK of MG Ramchandran that was passed to MK Stalin and J. Jayalalitha. The state has large population of SCs and STs with communities like Vaniyar Nadar Velar etc. BJP here is out of context and may get 1 or 2 seats. The main contest is between DMK alliance and AIADMK+.The minority votes play a important role as they are around 18 percent population with half of each Muslim and Christian. There are internal tussle between AIADMK which could be useful for INDIA alliance. Congress has it’s nationalist votebank in south Tamil Nadu on which BJP has it’s eye. Last time 38 out of 39 seats were won by DMK alliance. The voting in Tamil Nadu will take place in the first phase on 19th of April on all 39 seats.

[ ANDHRA PRADESH AND TELANGANA ]

Andhra Pradesh has 25 seats and elections will be held here in 4th phase on 13th of May. Tripartite struggle is going take place here as the YSR Congress , BJP +TDP alliance and INC + CPI(M) have pitted their candidates against each other. YSR Congress leader is Jagan Mohan Reddy who derives support from Reddy community and other OBCs there. TDP with leader N. Chandrababu Naidu derives it’s support from coastal Kamma and Kappu community. Congress relies heavily on minority votebank.On the basis of regional disparity and language Andhra Pradesh was broken into Telangana .BRS (Formerly Telangana Rastra Samiti) is the major opposition here with leader K Chandrashekhar Rao. There is tripartite stuggle between BRS Congress and BJP with Hyderabad being AIMMIM bastion. BJP is eyeing to climb the cradle with Reddy Mundraj and other OBC votebank whereas INC is eyeing for Dalit+ Muslim votebank. Telangana has 17 seats and elections are to be held on 13th May in 4th phase.

[ KERALA ]

God’s own country Kerala has been set to witness the Loksabha Elections on it’s 20 seats in 2nd phase on 26th of April. The major fight is here between Left Democratic Front of Communist Party of India and United Democratic Front of Congress that includes Indian Union Muslim League. Religion break up of Kerala consists of 55 % Hindus, 30 ℅ Muslims and 18 ℅ Christians. BJP here is eyeing to break Nair and Ezhava from CPI(M) and Christians from the Congress as they were agitated because of alliance between IUML and Congress,to form it’s votebank but it seems it’s not working. Kerala is the most literate state so they have their owns agendas for voting affected by the urban cause like foods etc but still there are issues like Sabrimala,forced conversions that will play some role . Rahul Gandhi is MP from Waynad of Kerala. Northern Kerala is the bastion of CPI(M). BJP is eyeing to grab the seats of Thiruvananthapuram, Thrissur and Pathanamthitta as they have high chances there due to caste and religious equations.

EAST INDIA

[ BIHAR ]

The land of political master Chanakaya ,Bihar has it’s own political diaspora. BJP, INC, JDU and RJD are the major parties here. BJP is considered the party of forwards (Brahman, Rajput, Bhumihar etc) , RJD of Lalu Prasad Yadav has it’s own core votebank of Yadav-Mulim and JDU of Nitish Kumar is party with support of Koeri-Kurmi-Kushwahas. Caste and religion wise dominant politics take place in Bihar. BJP is in alliance with JDU, LJP and Jeetanram Manjhi HAM has given ticket to mostly forward caste in Bihar and has left the other caste combinations to JDU and LJP.They are relying on forward votes along with OBCs vote due to the image of PM Modi and votes of SCs due to LJP. BJP is contesting on 17 seats JDU on 16 seats and LJP on 5 seats. HAM and Upendra Kuswaha has got 1-1 seat each whereas RJD,Congress , VIP and Communist are in alliance fighting on 23,9,5 and 3 seats. Roughly in 3 regions ,BJP is dominant in Bhojpur RJD in Magadh and Mithila and JDU in central parts.It will be interesting to watch independent candidates like Pawan Singh in Karakat , Pappu Yadav in Purnia and Hina Saheb(Wife of former gangster Sahabuddin) in Siwan . Vaishali loksabha is interesting as Munna Shukla (Bhumihar ) has been pitted against Veena Devi (Rajput) of BJP by RJD.Also the contest in Sheohar where the wife of former gangster turned politician Anand Mohan has been pitted against RJDs Ritu Jaiswal AIMMIM has also gained it’s base in Mithila region and is planning to contest on some seats. Voting here will take place in all 7 phases and the previous election was swept by BJP-JDU alliance winning all 40 seats.

Jharkhand is a mineral rich state in which the politics is dominated by mainly Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM). There are mainly 30 percent Dalits 15 percent Muslims and around 50 percent OBCs that includes Koeri Kurmi Dusadh Koli etc and they are all votebanks of JMM but the image of PM Modi sways away OBCs creating a atmosphere for BJP.
Odisha is a coastal state whose main regional party is Biju Janta Dal (BJD) of Naveen Patnaik. Caste based politics doesn’t have much impact here as BJD had it’s own base and popularity. There is difference in development between advance coastal Odisha and less developed western Odisha and BJP eyeing to increase it’s tally of seats through this difference and PM Modi’s OBC image as state consists of 50℅ OBCs.
West Bengal is state with major political party like TMC of Mamta Banerjee, CPI(M) , INC and BJP. State has large Muslim(35℅) and Dalit population( 50 percent) with key communities like Rajbansi, Namsamudra etc. BJP here had no base once and TMC -CPI(M) enjoyed power but it has developed a base there in SC and ST population. These 3 states have mainly regional party as opposition and according to records BJP does poor when pitted against regional players other than national players.

[ MAHARASHTRA ]

Maharashtra is one of the rich and influential state where the major parties are Shiv Sena(SS) , NCP of Sharad Pawar, BJP and INC. There are various divisions as shown in the map and each party has it’s region of dominance like Shiv Sena strong hold is in Konkan, NCP in Western Maharashtra (Desh) and INC in Vidarbha and Marathwada. The effect of BJP has been spread throughout. Maratha population has dominated the politics in Maharashtra and the issue of local and outsider also plays a important role there. BJP and Shiv Sena had together got around 51 percent votes in 2019 loksabha election and won all 40 seats .NCP and INC were left down to 30 percent. The key strategy of BJP is of OBC consolidation whereas opposition is eyeing on the consolidated minority vote.Split in Shiv Sena and NCP has took place with leaders like Eknath Shinde and Ajeet Pawar aligning with the BJP. Elections will be held here in the first 5 phases.

[ MADHYA PRADESH AND GUJARAT ]

In the states of Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat the contest is directly between BJP and INC. Madhya Pradesh has mainly 6 regions Malwa Nimar, Mahakoshal, Madhya Bharat, Gwalior-Chambal, Vindhya and Bundelkhand. Mahakoshal and Malwa-Nimar were where INC is seen to be strong whereas Vindhya ,Madhya Bharat and Gwalior Chambal has been the strong zones of BJP.Congress built it’s votebank around SCs, STs along with forward caste and gave CMs like Arjun Singh,Digvijay Singh.BJP tackled it by developing cadre of OBC leaders like Uma Bharati, Shivraj Singh Chouhan. Having a glance on Gujarat initially INC was strong there riding on nationalistic wave and then by using KHAM(Khastriya-Koli-Harijan-Adivasi- Muslim) formula of Madhav Solanki(former CM of Gujarat) from where the current roots of Rajput agitation can be seen as they have been powerless because things changed after 1990s and the state has been the fortress of BJP since then due to new combination of OBCs, Patidars and forwards like Brahman and Bania.
In both states BJP sweeped INC with all the seats and the OBC identity of the PM played a important role along with various welfare schemes for deprived sections.In MP election’s will be held in first 4 phases and in Gujarat will be held in 3rd phase on 7th of May.

[ MAP OF OLD RESULT OF 2019 AND 2014 ]

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About Post Author

Ayush Pratap Singh

singhayushpratap40@gmail.com

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